Calibrated, Public, Scored Forecasts on Markets and Macro
We publish probabilities where others publish opinions. Scored transparently. Never deleted. Track record open for anyone to audit.
Current Forecasts
8 forecasts currently active, with resolution deadlines and Brier-score tracking.
| Question | Probability | Resolution Date |
|---|---|---|
| Will the Fed lower the fed funds rate in November 2026? | 65.0% | 2026-11-05 |
| Will the US unemployment rate (U3) for October 2026 be above 4.5%? | 45.0% | 2026-11-06 |
| Will the S&P 500 exceed 8,000 before Dec 10, 2026? | 40.0% | 2026-12-10 |
| Will gold exceed $2,800/oz before Dec 10, 2026? | 55.0% | 2026-12-10 |
| Will oil (WTI) settle below $70/barrel on Nov 15, 2026? | 35.0% | 2026-11-15 |
| Will CPI (YoY) for October 2026 be above 3.0%? | 50.0% | 2026-11-12 |
| Will the EUR/USD exchange rate be above 1.10 on Nov 30, 2026? | 60.0% | 2026-11-30 |
| Will there be a government shutdown in the US before Dec 10, 2026? | 25.0% | 2026-12-10 |
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