Forecasts Digest — Issue #001
Welcome to the first issue of Market Signals. We publish raw probabilities and the data behind them.
Will the Fed lower the fed funds rate in November 2026?
- Probability: 65%
- Deadline: 2026-11-05
- Evidence: Given current economic softening signals, a 25bps cut is the base case.
Will the US unemployment rate (U3) for October 2026 be above 4.5%?
- Probability: 45%
- Deadline: 2026-11-06
- Evidence: Recent labor data suggests a cooling market but it has been hovering around 4.2-4.3%.
Will the S&P 500 exceed 8,000 before Dec 10, 2026?
- Probability: 40%
- Deadline: 2026-12-10
- Evidence: Bullish momentum is strong but valuations are high, making 8,000 a psychological ceiling.
Will gold exceed $2,800/oz before Dec 10, 2026?
- Probability: 55%
- Deadline: 2026-12-10
- Evidence: Geopolitical tensions and Fed easing cycles historically favor gold appreciation.
Will oil (WTI) settle below $70/barrel on Nov 15, 2026?
- Probability: 35%
- Deadline: 2026-11-15
- Evidence: Global supply management by OPEC+ suggests oil will likely maintain a floor above $70.
Will CPI (YoY) for October 2026 be above 3.0%?
- Probability: 50%
- Deadline: 2026-11-12
- Evidence: Inflation has been sticky; 3.0% remains a pivot point for market sentiment.
Prior Issue (from issue-001.md)
Market Signals - Newsletter Issue #001
Subject: Welcome: Calibrated forecasts, publicly scored
Forecast Digest - {week_of}
Welcome to the first issue of Market Signals. This newsletter publishes our latest probabilities, scored against their resolution outcomes. No commentary, no hot takes - just numbers that have skin in the game.
(Engineer note: replace all placeholders below with data from forecasts.json)
{asset_or_topic} - {short_question}
- Our probability: {probability_pct}%
- Resolved?: {yes/no/unresolved}
- Original timestamp: {date_time}
- Resolution deadline: {deadline_datetime}
- If resolved: result = {result_value}
- If resolved: Brier score = {brier_score_value}
- Key evidence we used: {evidence_summary}
{asset_or_topic_2} - {short_question_2}
- Our probability: {probability_pct_2}%
- Resolved?: {yes/no/unresolved}
- Brier score = {brier_score_value_2} (if resolved)
- Key evidence we used: {evidence_summary_2}
Methodology note
Forecasts in this issue were formed using {data_sources_description - e.g., "on-chain metrics and historical baselines for macro indicators; sentiment-adjusted priors for policy outcomes"}. All probabilities are published before their respective deadlines. Unresolved forecasts will appear in future issues with their scoring results at resolution.
Track record snapshot
| Topic | Forecasts | Avg Brier vs 50/50 baseline | |-------|-----------|-----------------------------| | {topic_1_label} | {count_1} | {avg_brier_1} | | {topic_2_label} | {count_2} | {avg_brier_2} |
Aggregate Brier score (all resolved): {aggregate_brier}
(Engineer note: compute aggregates across all resolved forecasts in forecasts.json)
What's next
We will be publishing new forecasts weekly. Each issue includes resolved scores so you can track accuracy over time - not just the hits.
The full track record is updated live on our site with every resolution, including misses. We never delete them.
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Disclaimer
Market Signals publishes probabilistic forecasts for informational and educational purposes only. Nothing here constitutes financial advice or investment recommendations.
The newsletter is free because accurate market foresight should be publicly auditable.
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