Full Forecast Ledger
Every resolved forecast appears in our live track-record index below, organized by topic area (macro, markets, policy) and date window. The aggregate Brier score compares our performance against a random 50/50 baseline and, where available, against public prediction-market settlement prices.
Note: This ledger is append-only. Once a forecast resolves, its outcome and Brier score are recorded permanently. Unresolved forecasts will have empty Outcome and Score columns until resolution.
| # | Question | Probability | Resolution Date | Status | Outcome | Brier Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Will the Fed lower the fed funds rate in November 2026? | 65% | 2026-11-05 | Unresolved | ||
| 2 | Will the US unemployment rate (U3) for October 2026 be above 4.5%? | 45% | 2026-11-06 | Unresolved | ||
| 3 | Will the S&P 500 exceed 8,000 before Dec 10, 2026? | 40% | 2026-12-10 | Unresolved | ||
| 4 | Will gold exceed $2,800/oz before Dec 10, 2026? | 55% | 2026-12-10 | Unresolved | ||
| 5 | Will oil (WTI) settle below $70/barrel on Nov 15, 2026? | 35% | 2026-11-15 | Unresolved | ||
| 6 | Will CPI (YoY) for October 2026 be above 3.0%? | 50% | 2026-11-12 | Unresolved | ||
| 7 | Will the EUR/USD exchange rate be above 1.10 on Nov 30, 2026? | 60% | 2026-11-30 | Unresolved | ||
| 8 | Will there be a government shutdown in the US before Dec 10, 2026? | 25% | 2026-12-10 | Unresolved |
Every forecast — correct or incorrect — is permanent record. We will never delete a miss.
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